Which Comes First, the Wells or the Pipeline?
Canada’s pipeline debate is a wells-or-pipeline-first dilemma: producers won’t invest in growth without pipelines, and pipelines won’t proceed without producer commitments. Past booms show the billions required and the risks of mismatched timing. Today, spending needed to just sustain output already consumes most capital expenditures. Who will finance the next wave of growth, and under what conditions?
1 of 3IssueOct 2, 2025Which Comes First: The Wells or the Pipeline?
Canada’s pipeline debate is a wells-or-pipeline-first dilemma: producers won’t invest in growth without pipelines, and pipelines won’t proceed without producer commitments. Past booms show the billions required and the risks of mismatched timing. Today, spending needed to just sustain output already consumes most capital expenditures. Who will finance the next wave of growth, and under what conditions?
2 of 3IssueAug 25, 2026The Pipelines Come First
Last October, Studio.Energy asked which comes first, the wells or the pipeline. Nine months later, governments have answered. On July 2, 2026, Alberta submitted the 1 million barrels per day (MMb/d) West Coast Oil Pipeline (WCOP) project to the Major Projects Office.¹ With additional expansions from incumbent oil pipeline companies, proposed new export capacity could total over 2 MMb/d. Answer: The pipelines are coming first.
3 of 3IssueOct 6, 2026Is There Enough Oil to Fill the Pipes?
The previous issue of this series describes potential oil pipeline capacity — from Alberta to oil-consuming markets — of 2.0 to 2.8 MMb/d. Under the right conditions, new pipelines can get filled. Canada holds 159 billion barrels of proven oil sands reserves. Projects registered with the AER tally more than 3.5 MMb/d and another 4 billion barrels in conventional crude oil and liquids reserves are also potentially available.